Business Continuity, Policy & Planning

Disaster or attack expected within four years

By Jianggan Li | 24 November 2008

A survey of leading security experts in the United States predicts that disaster will inevitably strike - but that this is more likely to be natural disaster rather than a terrorist attack.

View photos

Related Categories

• BUSINESS CONTINUITY
• POLICY & PLANNING

From this Section

• RESEARCH

BookHill Partners and the Homeland Defence Journal released the results of a survey of 122 homeland security experts on priorities for the next administration in protecting the American people and homeland.

Over 83 per cent of experts surveyed expected a major disaster of some kind in the United States within the next four years, within the term of the next president.

This mirrors the results of a poll by the National Association of Chiefs of Police which revealed that almost 87 per cent of United States’ police commanders and security directors expect a catastrophic terrorist incident within the continental United States.

Roughly 58 per cent of respondents said that the most probable scenario for a major disaster was a natural disaster. But almost 22 per cent said that the most probable scenario for a major disaster was a terrorist attack with a weapon of mass destruction (chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear specifically).

Almost 72 per cent of respondents expect major changes if Senator Obama is the next president. In contrast, over 80 per cent of respondents believed that homeland security policies under a McCain administration would be largely unchanged from those under the Bush administration.

Fifty-four per cent said the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)should be maintained but reorganised; roughly 30 per cent said the agency should be unchanged; and almost 15 per cent said the agency should be split up.

Experts also expect the next administration’s top four homeland security priorities to be border security, emergency response, development of medical countermeasures to weapons of mass destruction, and port security. Respondents said the most important expertise and experience for the next secretary of DHS are: managerial experience; military experience; and critical infrastructure experience. Respondents also placed a priority on intelligence and state level homeland security experience.

The survey results reflect the views of 122 homeland security professionals, of which 36 per cent had ten or more years and 32 per cent had five or more years experience in the field. Respondents came principally from private sector homeland security professionals, federal, state and local homeland security officials, and the military.